Coatue Projected $1.995 Trillion Valuation for Anthropic in 2030

In a presentation to prospective investors in January, Coatue offered a rare look at how it justifies Anthropic’s heady valuations. An anonymous source sent me the slides, which give a unique look at how a top investment firm values Anthropic’s business. This is a moment in time when some of America’s most valuable, growing technology companies remain private. In the January presentation, Coatue estimated that Anthropic would lose $14 billion in EBITDA on $18 billion in revenue in 2026, ending the year with $30 billion in annualized run-rate revenue. Most recently, it’s been reported that Anthropic is at $19 billion in ARR, which could suggest Anthropic is already running ahead of Coatue’s expectations. By 2031, Coatue projected that Anthropic would be generating $48 billion in EBITDA profits on $200 billion in revenue, with $224 billion of ARR. That would give Anthropic a 41x forward EBITDA multiple at a projected $1.995 trillion valuation in 2030. Coatue told the investors it was pitching that Anthropic could be worth $2.413 trillion in 2031. In February, Coatue co-led a $30 billion Series G investment in Anthropic that valued it at $380 billion. Coatue declined to comment on this story. I first shared this slide and talked about the presentation on my new podcast, the Cerebral Valley Show, which I host with my CVAI co-hosts Max Child and James Wilsterman. I’ve got a few other slides from the Coatue presentation for Newcomersubscribers.