If We Miss 1.5°C, Do We Give Up?

We often talk about 1.5°C as if it’s a cliff: if we stay on this side, we’re fine; if we go even a fraction of a degree over, we’re cooked. That framing is deeply misleading and even potentially dangerous. In this Tea with Katharine, I explain how climate targets were created, what the Paris Agreement actually says, and why scientists view warming not as a sudden switch, but as a scale. The impacts of climate change (and even the risk of tipping points) increase with temperature, much like the effects of smoking (and the risk of lung cancer) increase with every cigarette. The science doesn’t say “1.5°C or bust.” It says every bit of warming matters. And the progress made in the last decade—slowing projected warming from the 4-5°C by 2100 we were headed to just ten years ago to the trajectory of 2.7°C by 2100 we’re on now - shows that ambitious goals can result in real-world action. So if we miss 1.5°C, that’s not a reason to quit. It’s a reason to accelerate. Because staying below 1.6°C instead of 1.7°C—or even 2°C instead of 2.1°C—will still protect lives, food systems, coastlines, and health.