Iran: Competing War Narratives and the Euro Spat

I’ve been sick with the world’s most obnoxious virus, and amid relentless coughing and sneezing and sinus headaches, I’ve overdosed on Iran takes. So many of them. I have a lot to say, and it won’t all fit into one post. One thing is sure, though: I have recovered enough to think again and the lights at the plague chronicle are back on. The war is not going well, at least not from the American perspective. Yesterday the Israelis hit the South Pars gas field, and the Iranians retaliated with multiple attacks on Gulf oil and gas infrastructure – the most significant of them, a devastating strike on the Ras Laffan hub in Qatar, which produces 20% of the world’s liquid natural gas. Previously both sides had avoided energy targets, with the United States refusing even to blockade Iranian oil tankers, accepting a bizarre scenario whereby Iranians were the only ones able to maintain regular shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Everyone knows if energy becomes fair game, we’re in for a serious energy crisis, which in the worst case scenario could end with much of the oil and gas infrastructure of the Gulf states in flames, the Strait of Hormuz hopelessly mined and the world facing serious energy shortfalls. I don’t like panic and hyperbole, and there is probably some chance we still avoid much of this fate, but we should also be honest and admit that things are not looking up. What follows is sure to annoy some people. There’s not much I can do about that; I think the best war commentary is the objective kind. I’m not a propaganda account here to tell you why the evil Americans are always on the brink of losing their empire or why the genius art-of-the-deal negotiator Trump is always twelve steps ahead of everyone. War is a complex, high-risk endeavour; unjust or poorly planned campaigns can go well and reward their wagers; the best-laid plans and most necessary attacks can nevertheless turn sour and impose such costs that in retrospect they appear regrettable. In this first part, I want to discuss the three competing narratives of the Iran war that have emerged in the western press, and review the spat between Trump and his NATO allies over the latter’s refusal to assist in reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Maybe you would like to subscribe and support my work. Without my subscribers, nothing I do here would be possible.