🌊 Is Russia Losing the War?

Traveling in Russia in both 2016 and 2017, Russians spoke to me about the “Great Patriotic War” like it happened yesterday. In that conflict, which we refer to as World War II, the Soviet Union lost an estimated 24M people. Soldiers and civilians alike experienced unthinkable deprivations that are now ingrained in the Russian psyche. Talking to Russians in bars, homes, and on trains, everyday people spoke to me about the conflict with a fluency that in America only history buffs would have. It drove the Russians crazy that Americans and Brits often think they won the war, when any Russian will let you know that at Stalingrad – the “turning point of World War II” – more Soviets died than Americans in the entire war. For at least three reasons, the Great Patriotic War is incomparably important to Russians. One is the suffering: Millions of civilians dying under Nazi occupation; millions of soldiers gunned down as they went into battle against vastly better-trained and better-equipped Germans. (Millions more killed by Stalin, a fact they tend to ignore.) Russians lucky enough to have had a grandparent survive all relay war stories about people heading into machine gun fire with no gun, ammo, or shoes. Two is the victory: Despite the deprivation, Russians defeated the Nazis. As they point out, it was they who turned the tide of the war, stormed Berlin, and liberated Auschwitz. As they tell it, their sheer bravery and sacrifice saved the world from German domination – a feat they want no one to forget. And three is the propaganda: Russian governments have carried the mantle of the above for 81 years. Speeches by Putin and his predecessors invariably contain references to the Great Patriotic War, the suffering of the wartime generation, and the need to live up to their sacrifice and victory. For these reasons, Russia holds a massive Victory Day celebration every year on May 9 at Red Square. It’s one of the most important political events of the year, with Putin addressing the nation and showing off the country’s vast military arsenal. But this year was different. Citing a “terrorist threat” from Ukraine, Russia held its smallest Victory Day parade in years. Instead of showing off its nuclear missiles and armored vehicles, authorities played a video of them. Hours before the event, Ukraine announced it would not bomb the event – but published a grid showing the exact coordinates for Red Square, including Putin’s official residence. Meanwhile, reports of discontent within Russia are rife. Putin has reportedly been living in a bunker, for fear of a Ukrainian drone strike, while support for the war falls among everyday Russians. Public criticism of the war, unthinkable in 2022, is now relatively commonplace. Underlying this is one simple question: Is Russia losing the war? Getting an unfiltered picture of the situation on the frontlines and within Russia is difficult, yet we do have a lot of facts.