Nancy Pelosi’s succession waiting game

When San Francisco labor unions recently commissioned a tracking poll in the House race to succeed Nancy Pelosi, it was expressly with the hope of nudging her to endorse Supervisor Connie Chan, a longtime ally, in the heated contest. But it’s still unclear if Pelosi — despite the poll showing Chan in second place ahead of the primary — will take the plunge. The former speaker has come within an inch of backing Chan while still resisting the push to make it official. Late last week, Pelosi told reporters at an AAPI event that Chan would be "a great member of Congress.” Pelosi also made a surprise appearance three weeks ago at a Capitol Hill fundraiser that Sen. Adam Schiff, one of Pelosi’s closest allies, hosted for Chan. Pelosi’s foray into the race comes as several recent polls, including the survey commissioned by labor unions, show Chan effectively tied for the second-place spot to advance from primary with Saikat Chakrabarti, a former tech engineer and progressive organizer who’s often maligned Pelosi by name. Pelosi’s team has repeatedly, since she announced her retirement last fall, said she has no plans to make an endorsement. The union’s poll, shared with Playbook by Chan’s campaign, shows her with a 3-point lead over Chakrabarti (within the survey’s margin of error), despite him pouring at least $5 million of his own wealth into the campaign. He has vastly outspent Chan, including on TV ads and paid canvassers. That’s why a potential Pelosi endorsement could be crucial in shaping the outcome of the June 2 primary, as progressive leaders in the city seek to bolster Chan against state Sen. Scott Wiener, a more moderate Democrat, at least by San Francisco standards, who’s expected to finish in first place and advance to the general election. Pelosi, one of the most prolific tacticians in modern political history, has often not been shy about shaping the outcome of national intraparty fights. She has been a chief architect of the Democratic Party’s direction for two decades, and famously nudged President Joe Biden to end his 2024 reelection bid. She also has no affinity for the two men vying to succeed her: Wiener frustrated people in Pelosi’s orbit with his yearlong preparation to succeed her, and launched his campaign weeks before she announced her retirement last fall. Chakrabarti is on worse terms with Pelosi, a beef that stretches back to his brief tenure as chief of staff to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, when he publicly questioned Pelosi’s political instincts. And that’s also why Pelosi's holding back has puzzled some San Francisco operatives. San Francisco influencers speculate that Pelosi’s waiting game could signal she’s holding off until the general election — when her backing could be most definitive — or reflect a calculation that Chan might not place in the top two. "She’s playing it close to the vest,” said Tom Ammiano, a former state legislator from the city. "She might not like certain other candidates, but she’s not blind to the polling. She’s methodical." This reporting first appeared in California Playbook. Sign up to receive it in your inbox every weekday.