How much of a threat to the economy is the oil price shock, and shortages of other key commodities, caused by the US-Iran war? What's likeliest to happen if the war wraps up soon? Or, if it escalates from here? And what impact is this all likely to have on the financial markets, which are back trading at all-time highs? To find out, we're fortunate to welcome back to the program analyst Bill Fleckenstein of Fleckenstein Capital. He doesnât know when the bond market will break, but heâs confident it will at some point given the major trends in play. And when it does, he thinks âThere will be hell to payâ To find out why, click here or on the video below: REMINDER: Precious metals expert Andy Schectman, CEO of Miles Franklin, is kindly offering an exclusive discount to the Thoughtful Money audience: While supplies last, heâs willing to sell us junk silver at $2.00 below spot. If youâd like to take him up on this offer, or talk with him & his staff about any other questions/needs you have regarding buying or storing precious metals, just click on the button below and fill out the short form: Iâm so grateful to everyone who has kindly supported me by becoming a premium subscriber to this Substack. It makes an important difference in helping me fund the substantial operating costs of running Thoughtful Money. Premium supporters receive my âAdamâs Notesâ summaries to the interviews I do, the wildly-popular MacroPass⢠rotation of reports from esteemed experts, VIP discounts, plus periodic advance-viewing/exclusive content. My Adamâs Notes for this discussion with Bill are available to them below. If you, too, would like to become a premium subscriber to this Substack (itâs only $0.52/day), then sign up now below: Adamâs Notes: Bill Fleckenstein (recorded 5.11.26) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Bill Fleckenstein sees the US economy as surprisingly resilient so far despite the US-Iran war, thanks to pre-existing momentum from large budget deficits, tax refunds, and massive AI capital spending that outweigh the negative effects of higher oil and commodity prices. Stock market all-time highs are driven overwhelmingly by the âgiant mindless robotâ of passive index flows and ongoing QE, not by fundamentals or war news; these forces have proven very hard to disrupt. Higher energy and fertilizer prices are real and will
Send this story to anyone â or drop the embed into a blog post, Substack, Notion page. Every play sends rev-share back to Adam Taggart's Thoughtful MoneyÂŽ.
70% goes to the publisher ¡ 20% to whoever forwarded this to you ¡ 10% keeps Storyflo running. Sent in USDC on Base â gas-free for you.