CIA: Cold open.

Cold open. This is a declassified Central Intelligence Agency intelligence assessment titled “China’s View of Relations with the New U S. Administration,” dated June nineteen eighty‑one. The document is notable because it records Beijing’s early expectations and concerns about the incoming Reagan administration and the potential impact on Sino‑U S. ties. The source is archived at the Black Vault, https://archive.org/download/us-china-intel-CI02199/CI02199_djvu.txt. Provenance. The assessment was released to the public on July twenty‑ninth, two thousand eight, under a Freedom of Information Act request. The declassification authority is listed as the Central Intelligence Agency’s Office of Information Management. The material was made available through the Black Vault’s online repository, which reproduces the original CIA file. The document. The assessment opens with a key‑judgments section. It reads: “Beijing has tentatively concluded that Sino‑U S. relations can continue to improve under the new U S. administration. At the same time, China remains concerned that Washington will take Beijing for granted and will not respect Chinese sensitivities and interests regarding Taiwan. Ferment in Chinese domestic affairs has aggravated differences with the United States over Taiwan. Recent U S. actions have reassured Beijing about the stability of the relationship and its potential for further growth. This has taken place despite China’s continued uneasiness over the prospect of U S. arms sales to Taiwan and persistent dissatisfaction with the terms of the Taiwan Relations Act.” The assessment continues: “China has been particularly encouraged by U S. statements reaffirming the bases of normalization, by Ambassador Cha’s meetings with the President, and by Secretary Haig’s visit to China, as well as the scheduled visit by former President Ford and the upcoming visit by Secretary Haig. Beijing continues to insist that the basis for a firm and comprehensive Sino‑U S. relationship is agreement on the need to oppose Soviet aggression. China looks to the United States to formulate its policies in light of this imperative and questions U S. constancy in opposing Soviet actions when Washington responds to other needs and pressures, particularly on the Taiwan question.” Further, the report notes: “Chinese leaders have made a point of assuring the United States that they will maintain a strongly anti‑Soviet stance and have encouraged the United States to play a more active role in Indochina and South Asia—areas of major Chinese interest—in opposing Soviet positions. Beijing still expects relations with the United States to expand in the security, economic, and diplomatic arenas. Despite economic retrenchment in China, trade is flourishing, and Beijing continues to express an interest in obtaining U S. military equipment and technology. China’s continued emphasis on the strategic underpinning of Sino‑U S. ties indicates a desire to give an ever broader political basis to the relationship. While hoping to expand its connections with the United States, Beijing will continue to press the United States to give an official character to its ties with Taiwan, and particularly not to sell new arms to Taipei.” The assessment then presents Beijing’s own appraisal: “Chinese assessments of the incoming U S. administration at the end of last year indicated confidence that U S. policy toward China would not change substantially and a belief that the United States would be more steady in opposing Soviet expansion. At the same time, Chinese public and private statements showed a deep concern that the United States might regard China as a negligible factor in international affairs and conclude that it could ignore Chinese interests. The Chinese were most sensitive to the possibility that the United States might