CIA: First Deputy Prime Minister Arkhipov’s planned visit to the People’s Republic of

First Deputy Prime Minister Arkhipov’s planned visit to the People’s Republic of China – Central Intelligence Agency intelligence appraisal, dated April eleventh, nineteen eighty‑four. This memorandum is notable because it outlines Soviet expectations for expanding Sino‑Soviet economic ties at a moment of heightened strategic tension, and it anticipates the impact of the upcoming United States presidential visit. The document was released through The Black Vault, uploaded from a Freedom of Information Act request. The declassification authority marked the material approved for release on February seventeenth, two thousand nine. The source is the CIA’s Directorate of Intelligence, and the full text is available at the Black Vault URL. The memorandum reads: “First Deputy Prime Minister Arkhipov’s visit to China – next month probably will lead to some further expansion of Sino‑Soviet economic relations at a time of continuing impasse over basic security issues. Arkhipov, the highest‑level Soviet official to travel to the People’s Republic of China in fifteen years, had broad experience as an individual in China during the 1950s. The Soviets proposed the visit late last year to discuss economic and trade issues outside the context of the ongoing foreign‑ministerial talks. The Soviets have made similar proposals for talks on ‘international issues’ to develop more channels in order to get at least some movement in Sino‑Soviet relations. The Chinese agreed in principle to Arkhipov’s visit early this year but deferred it until May, presumably with an eye on the upcoming visit of President Reagan. No precise dates have been announced. This memorandum was produced by the China Division, Office of Fast Asian Analysis. Questions and comments are welcome and may be addressed to the Chief of the China Division. Possible topics for discussion in the talks include: - Measures to increase bilateral trade from its projected 1984 level of $1.2 billion to a possible level of $5 billion by 1990. - The establishment of a long‑term, five‑year Sino‑Soviet trade and technical cooperation agreement. - The establishment of a joint economic commission to guide expanded Sino‑Soviet economic interchange. Agreement on all these issues during Arkhipov’s visit is unlikely, although we believe the visit could produce some forward movement in all three areas. Moscow has long favored such increased exchanges as a means to gradually