CIA: Document: Science and Technology in China's Modernization Released through The

Document: Science and Technology in China's Modernization Released through The Black Vault, this declassified CIA record is a National Intelligence Estimate, NIE 13-7.2-86.1, from June 1986, 53 pages in length. The document is a product of the Director of Central Intelligence, with the National Foreign Intelligence Board concurring, except as noted in the text. Participating agencies include the Central Intelligence Agency, the Defense Intelligence Agency, the National Security Agency, and the intelligence organizations of the Departments of State, the Treasury, and Energy. This Estimate deals with a central issue in US policy and China's modernization plans: the outlook for science and technology. The Estimate assesses the S&T environment, the prospects for significant advances in priority areas over the next 15 years, and the effects of S&T achievements and failures on both China and the outside world. The following is an excerpt from the Estimate: "The principal assumptions underlying this policy are that a more modernized China will be more open to Western ideas and influence, will develop a larger stake in global stability, will be less prone to act in a destabilizing manner, and will be better able to withstand pressures from the USSR." The Estimate assumes both political and social stability and general continuity in modernization policies in China, based on the conclusions of the recently completed National Intelligence Estimate NIE 13-7-86, China's Second Revolution. It also assumes that China will not gain control over the scientific and technical resources in Taiwan. The Estimate focuses mainly on technology, along with the institutional structure that conducts research and acquires technology for China's industry. Key judgments include: "Overall, the outlook for the modernization of science and technology in China is favorable: Political support for S&T modernization is strong, consistent, and growing. Foreign technology is being acquired on an unprecedented scale, and large numbers of Chinese are being educated abroad in science and engineering." However, the pace of S&T modernization will be slow for at least a decade due to continuing difficulties in assimilating technologies. The labor force is unskilled and poorly motivated, managers are inefficient, and the infrastructure of technical support is inadequate. The supporting infrastructure is improving, with better qualified S&T managers, increasing funding for research and development, and a more agile and responsive S&T system evolving. The Estimate expects S&T to provide important contributions to increased productivity in China, which is the basic objective of modernization. In addition, S&T modernization will probably accelerate military research and development programs. Foreign technology will play a key role in reducing the time it takes to solve critical developmental problems. The general outlook for progress in high-priority areas is summarized below: Microelectronics Gap will widen, Computers Gap will widen, Telecommunications Gap will remain or widen, Automated manufacturing Gap likely to persist, and Transportation Gap will remain fairly uniform. Foreign technological assistance is likely to be instrumental in overcoming critical obstacles in both military and civil modernization programs. China will step up efforts to acquire foreign technology, particularly from the United States, providing both risks and opportunities. This is what the public record looks like at its most ordinary. For more information, visit storyflo.com. The document's canonical URL is https://archive.org/download/us-china-intel-CI02272/CI02272_djvu.txt.