CIA: Annual Report on the Military Power of the People’s Republic of China

Annual Report on the Military Power of the People’s Republic of China, a declassified Central Intelligence Agency assessment dated July twenty‑eighth, two thousand three, provides a comprehensive view of Beijing’s strategic intentions and force modernization. The report is notable for its detailed analysis of Chinese grand strategy, the role of the Taiwan Strait in force development, and the extent of Russian assistance to the People’s Liberation Army. This document entered the public domain through The Black Vault, which posted the full text on its archive. The release is part of a broader effort to make historical intelligence assessments available to scholars and the public. The source URL is https://archive.org/download/us-china-intel-CI02340/CI02340_djvu.txt. Executive Summary. Beijing is pursuing its long‑term political goals of developing its comprehensive national power and ensuring a favorable “strategic configuration of power.” China’s efforts to accomplish its security goals involve an integrated strategy that seeks to apply diplomatic, informational, military, and economic instruments of national power. Chinese leaders believe that national unity and stability are critical if China is to survive and develop as a nation. They also assert the necessity of maintaining state sovereignty and territorial integrity. While seeing opportunity and benefit in interactions with the United States—primarily in terms of trade and technology—Beijing perceives the United States as a significant long‑term challenge. In support of its overall national security objectives, China has embarked upon a force modernization program intended to diversify its options for use of force against potential targets such as Taiwan, the South China Sea, and border defense, and to complicate United States intervention in a Taiwan Strait conflict. Preparing for a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait is the primary driver for China’s military modernization. While it professes a preference for resolving the Taiwan issue peacefully, Beijing is also seeking credible military options. Should China use force against Taiwan, its primary goal would likely be to compel a quick negotiated solution on terms favorable to Beijing. China is developing advanced information technology and long‑range precision strike capabilities, and is looking for ways to target and exploit the perceived weaknesses of technologically superior adversaries. In particular, Beijing has greatly expanded its arsenal of increasingly accurate and lethal ballistic missiles and long‑range strike aircraft that are ready for immediate application should the People’s Liberation Army be called upon to conduct war before its modernization aspirations are fully realized. The force modernization program is heavily reliant upon assistance from Russia and other states of the former Soviet Union. China hopes to fill short‑term gaps in capabilities by significantly expanding its procurement of Russian weapon systems and technical assistance over the next several years. The success of China’s force modernization, however, will depend upon its ability to overcome a number of technical, logistical, and training obstacles. Report to Congress Pursuant to the Fiscal Year two thousand National Defense Authorization Act. Section one‑two‑zero‑two of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year two thousand, Public Law one hundred six, sixty‑five, provides that the Secretary of Defense shall submit a report “on the current and future military strategy of the People’s Republic of China.” The report shall address the current and probable future course of military‑technological development on the People’s Liberation Army and the tenets and probable development of Chinese grand strategy, security strategy, and military strategy, and of the military organizations and operational concepts, through the next twenty years. The report is organized into six sections. Section I introduces knowledge gaps, key developments, and the scope of the analysis. Section II examines goals and trends in Chinese grand, security, and military strategy. Section III discusses leadership transition within the People’s Liberation Army. Section IV details Chinese military modernization across operational doctrine, conventional forces, strategic forces, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, command and control, information operations, electronic warfare, counter‑space, and emerging weapon systems. Section V assesses the security situation in the Taiwan Strait, including Beijing’s political, economic, and military options, force posture, and potential challenges to external intervention. Section VI provides a summary of findings. The Black Vault’s editorial summary notes that the document “addresses the current and