CIA: Cold open.

Cold open. This is a declassified United States Central Intelligence Agency record titled “Annual Report to Congress: Military Power of the People’s Republic of China, 2006.” The report was prepared by the Office of the Secretary of Defense and submitted under the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year two thousand. It is notable because it provides the United States government’s most comprehensive assessment of Chinese military capabilities and strategy as of two thousand six, complete with maps, charts, and budget estimates. Provenance. The document was released to the public through The Black Vault, the online repository that publishes declassified government records. The release appears in the archive entry hosted at archive dot org, identified by the URL https colon slash slash archive dot org slash download slash us dash china dash intel dash CI02347 slash CI02347_djvu.txt. The declassification authority is listed as the Central Intelligence Agency, and the material was made publicly available without a specific FOIA case number. The date of release on The Black Vault is not recorded, but the source confirms the document is fully declassified. The document. The report opens with a title page that reads, “Annual Report to Congress – Military Power of the People’s Republic of China, two thousand six, Office of the Secretary of Defense.” The next page is intentionally left blank. The following page repeats the title and adds, “A Report to Congress Pursuant to the National Defense Authorization Act Fiscal Year two thousand, Section one two zero two, ‘Annual Report on Military Power of the People’s Republic of China,’ of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year two thousand, Public Law one hundred six sixty‑five, provides that the Secretary of Defense shall submit a report on the current and future military strategy of the People’s Republic of China. The report shall address the current and probable future course of military‑technological development on the People’s Liberation Army and the tenets and probable development of Chinese grand strategy, security strategy, and military strategy, and of the military organizations and operational concepts, through the next twenty years.” The next page is again left intentionally blank. Executive Summary. The report states, “China’s rapid rise as a regional political and economic power with global aspirations is an important element of today’s strategic environment—one that has significant implications for the region and the world.” It continues, “The United States welcomes the rise of a peaceful and prosperous China. U‑S policy encourages China to participate as a responsible international stakeholder by taking on a greater share of responsibility for the health and success of the global system from which China has derived great benefit.” The summary outlines a series of choices facing Chinese leaders, including economic transition, political reform, rising nationalism, internal unrest, proliferation of dangerous technologies, adoption of international norms, and expanding military power. The report describes the People’s Liberation Army as “in the process of long‑term transformation from a mass army designed for protracted wars of attrition on its territory to a more modern force capable of fighting short‑duration, high‑intensity conflicts against high‑tech adversaries.” It notes, “Today, China’s ability to sustain military power at a distance is limited. However, as the two thousand six Quadrennial Defense Review Report notes, ‘China has the greatest potential to compete militarily with the United States and field disruptive military technologies that could over time offset traditional U‑S military advantages.’” In the near term, the analysis says, “China’s military build‑up appears focused on preparing for Taiwan Strait contingencies, including the possibility of U‑S intervention.” It adds that “analysis of China’s military acquisitions suggests it is also generating capabilities that could apply to other regional contingencies, such as conflicts over resources or territory.” The report enumerates the PLA’s transformation as involving new doctrine for modern warfare, reform of military institutions and personnel systems, improved exercise and training standards, and acquisition of advanced foreign—especially Russian—and domestic weapon systems. The report highlights several surprising elements, including “the pace