CIA: This is a declassified Central Intelligence Agency report on the military power

This is a declassified Central Intelligence Agency report on the military power of the People’s Republic of China, dated two thousand eight. It was submitted to the United States Congress under the National Defense Authorization Act and offers a detailed assessment of China’s current and projected military capabilities, a subject of ongoing strategic interest. The record was released to the public through The Black Vault, with the full text uploaded to archive.org. The declassification was authorized by the Central Intelligence Agency under the Freedom of Information Act, making the document available for public inspection without alteration. The document begins with its heading: “Annual Report to Congress – Military Power of the People’s Republic of China – Two thousand eight – Office of the Secretary of Defense.” A blank page follows, as indicated by the notation “This page left intentionally blank.” The report continues: “Pursuant to the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year Two thousand, Public Law one hundred six sixty‑five, Section one‑two‑zero‑two, the Secretary of Defense shall submit a report on the current and future military strategy of the People’s Republic of China. The report shall address the current and probable future course of military‑technological development on the People’s Liberation Army and the tenets and probable development of Chinese grand strategy, security strategy, and military strategy, and of the military organizations and operational concepts, through the next twenty years.” Another blank page is noted. The Executive Summary reads in full: “China’s rapid rise over recent years as a regional political and economic power with growing global influence is an important element in today’s strategic landscape, one that has significant implications for the region and the world. The United States welcomes the rise of a stable, peaceful, and prosperous China. No country has done more to assist, facilitate, and encourage China’s national development and its integration in the international system. The United States continues to encourage China to participate as a responsible international stakeholder by taking on a greater share of responsibility for the stability, resilience and growth of the global system. However, much uncertainty surrounds China’s future course, in particular in the area of its expanding military power and how that power might be used. The People’s Liberation Army is pursuing comprehensive transformation from a mass army designed for protracted wars of attrition on its territory to one capable of fighting and winning short‑duration, high‑intensity conflicts along its periphery against high‑tech adversaries — an approach that China refers to as preparing for “local wars under conditions of informatization.” China’s ability to sustain military power at a distance remains limited but, as noted in the two thousand six Quadrennial Defense Review Report, it “has the greatest potential to compete militarily with the United States and field disruptive military technologies that could over time offset traditional U.S. military advantages.” China’s near‑term focus on preparing for contingencies in the Taiwan Strait, including the possibility of U.S. intervention, is an important driver of its modernization. Analysis of China’s military acquisitions and strategic thinking suggests Beijing is also developing capabilities for use in other contingencies, such as conflict over resources or disputed territories. The pace and scope of China’s military transformation have increased in recent years, fueled by acquisition of advanced foreign weapons, continued high rates of investment in its domestic defense and science and technology industries, and far‑reaching organizational and doctrinal reforms of the armed forces. China’s expanding and improving military capabilities are changing East Asian military balances; improvements in China’s strategic capabilities have implications beyond the Asia‑Pacific region. China’s nuclear force modernization, as evidenced by the fielding of the new DF‑31 and DF‑