CIA: Annual Report to Congress on the Military Power of the People’s Republic

Annual Report to Congress on the Military Power of the People’s Republic of China, two‑thousand‑nine, issued by the Office of the Secretary of Defense. This declassified briefing is notable because it fulfills the statutory requirement for an annual, unclassified assessment of China’s military strategy, capabilities, and intentions, and it provides the public record of the United States’ view of a major strategic competitor. The document was made publicly available through The Black Vault archive, which reproduces the original Department of Defense filing. The release is listed under the Black Vault entry for “US Intelligence on China CI02351 – Military Power of the People’s Republic of China Includes Maps and Charts.” The declassification authority is the Office of the Secretary of Defense, and the material was released without additional redactions. The report begins with a cover page marked “Annual Report to Congress – Military Power of the People’s Republic of China, two‑thousand‑nine,” followed by a notice that the page is left intentionally blank. The next page repeats the title and identifies the document as a report to Congress pursuant to the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year two‑thousand, Section one‑two‑zero‑two, which requires the Secretary of Defense to submit a report in both classified and unclassified form on the current and future military strategy of the People’s Republic of China. The report is to address the current and probable future course of military‑technological development of the People’s Liberation Army, and the tenets and probable development of Chinese grand strategy, security strategy, and military strategy, through the next twenty years. The executive summary opens with the observation that China’s rapid rise as a regional political and economic power with growing global influence has significant implications for the Asia‑Pacific region and the world. It states that the United States welcomes the rise of a stable, peaceful, and prosperous China, and encourages China to participate responsibly in world affairs by taking on a greater share of the burden for the stability, resilience, and growth of the international system. The summary notes that the United States has, over the past thirty years, encouraged and facilitated China’s national development and its integration into the international system, but that considerable uncertainty remains regarding how China’s expanding military power might be used. The People’s Liberation Army, the summary continues, is pursuing a comprehensive transformation from a mass army designed for protracted wars of attrition on its own territory to one capable of fighting and winning short‑duration, high‑intensity conflicts along its periphery against high‑tech adversaries. This approach is described by Chinese officials as preparing for “local wars under conditions of informatization.” The pace and scope of China’s military transformation have increased in recent years, fueled by acquisition of advanced foreign weapons, continued high rates of investment in domestic defense and science‑technology industries, and far‑reaching organizational and doctrinal reforms of the armed forces. The report acknowledges that China’s ability to sustain military power at distance remains limited, yet the armed forces continue to develop and field disruptive technologies, including anti‑access/area‑denial systems, as well as capabilities for nuclear, space, and cyber warfare that are changing regional military balances and have implications beyond the Asia‑Pacific region. It notes that the PLA’s modernization vis‑à‑vis Taiwan has continued, including the buildup of short‑range missiles opposite the island, and that in the near term China is rapidly developing coercive capabilities intended to deter Taiwan’s pursuit of de jure independence. These capabilities could, the report says, be used in the future to pressure Taiwan toward a settlement on Beijing’s terms while simultaneously attempting to deter, delay, or deny any possible United States support for the island in case of conflict. The summary further observes that the PLA is also developing longer‑range capabilities with implications beyond Taiwan, and that some of these capabilities have allowed China to contribute cooperatively to international responsibilities such as peacekeeping, humanitarian assistance, disaster relief, and counter‑piracy. However, the report warns that other, more disruptive capabilities could enable China to project power to ensure access to resources or enforce claims to disputed territories. Beijing publicly asserts that its military modernization is “purely defensive in nature,” yet the