Finance
Mason on finance and markets · June 17th
storyflo · finance and markets
Jun 17, 2026 · 30 min listen
Listen · storyflo · finance and markets
Mason on finance and markets · June 17th
0:00-29:50
Live · Kokoro-82M
Capital Flows has a new daily structure where I will do a stream every market session, breaking down the macro regime so that you have clarity on WHERE we are and conviction on WHAT to do. The first section of today’s stream covered HOW to understand interest and WHY they matter for the credit cycle melt-up that we are in. If you are trying to understand how much risk there is for equities and interest rate volatility for your portfolio, today’s stream will give you clarity. You can find the recording of the free section explaining the macro mechanics and drivers of interest rates here: The macro charts and decks from today are here: How to position into events by Jaymes: LINK Macro deck: In tomorrow’s livestream, we will watch the first press conference with Warsh and break it down in real time. We will then go over the new framework that Warsh lays out for the monetary regime. Here is the YouTube link for tomorrow’s livestream. The private members’ link for the second half of the stream covering the proprietary research will be right below it. Here is the proprietary report explaining HOW to understand interest rate risk, inflation risk, and its impact on equities:
This week feels less like a market update and more like repricing what “risk” and “return” actually mean. SpaceX continues to move through valuation and index-flow gravity. The Fed signals stability rather than surprise. Geopolitics briefly softens risk sentiment. And beneath it all, capital keeps migrating toward structures that don’t depend on direction, only execution. The common thread: investors are no longer just choosing assets. They’re choosing systems of return. Welcome back to Startup Deal Desk! Powered by ThinkFISH Warsh’s first Fed meeting sets a “rate-hold” baseline for a potential new policy era Markets react to geopolitical easing signals as oil falls 3%+ amid shifting Iran conflict narrative SpaceX IPO chatter +19% to $2.1T + “80%” Tesla merger odds SpaceX enters Nasdaq 100 inclusion pipeline, fueling index-flow driven demand expectations Satispay raises €120M to expand into stock/ETF trading and pensions, scaling 6.5M users and €116M ARR Regulated online gambling continues to grow globally, yet many traditional investors avoid the sector due to licensing requirements and regulatory complexity. Discerning Capital was built to fill that gap, providing specialized equity and credit solutions to operators across the ecosystem. By combining deep industry expertise with flexible capital, the firm aims to become the leading growth capital provider in a market underserved by traditional venture and private equity. Only dedicated growth-capital provider focused on regulated online gambling Operates in a market generating $3B+ in annual M&A activity Concentrated specialist strategy focused on catalyst-driven opportunities Prior investment experience includes a 15x return on a Las Vegas Sands investment Schedule Intro Call | Company LinkedIn | Meet Davis Catlin (LinkedIn) Traditional portfolios often struggle when markets become volatile, leaving investors searching for alternative sources of return. Carthage Capital operates an options-income strategy designed to generate consistent returns across markets. The fund combines quantitative modeling, AI-driven analysis, and institutional risk management to create a liquid alternative for investors seeking uncorrelated performance. $50M fund targeting 30%+ net annual returns after fees Positive audited returns every year since inception Monthly liquidity with no investor lock-up period Founder has 100% of his liquid net worth invested alongside LPs Investor and advisor network includes leaders from Citadel, Nasdaq, Morgan Stanley, Google, Meta, and Tesla Schedule Intro Call | Company LinkedIn | Meet Stephen Wu (LinkedIn) Many investors hold substantial cash reserves to preserve capital, but inflation can quietly erode purchasing power over time. FlexIncome Fund was designed to provide a different option: a probability-driven trading strategy that seeks consistent income while remaining largely indifferent to market direction. By combining systematic options trading with strict risk controls, the fund aims to deliver attractive risk-adjusted returns without relying on long-term market appreciation. 95% win rate and 10.6 Sharpe ratio Trades 0DTE SPX options with approximately 90%+ probability of profit at entry Automated futures hedge and zero overnight market exposure Approximately 0.12 correlation to the S&P 500 Schedule Intro Call | Company LinkedIn | Meet Griffin (LinkedIn) The pattern is becoming harder to ignore. Capital is increasingly rewarding structure over narrative, and execution over exposure. Whether in public markets, private capital, or systematic income strategies, the edge is shifting toward models that don’t rely on a single regime to work. We’ll continue tracking where that edge shows up next. See you on Friday! We help Startups and Funds reach nearly 84,000 angels, VCs, family offices, and entrepreneurs. → Schedule a 1:1 Discovery Call Join the Deal Desk community. Follow us on LinkedIn and X for more. Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell securities. Private investments carry risk, are illiquid, and are intended for accredited investors only. Investments involve the potential loss of principal. Returns, quarterly distributions, and IRRs are estimates and not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always perform your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.
North Attleboro (Mass.) Contributory Retirement System is looking for a small cap core equity manager. The $170 million pension system issued a request for proposals for the mandate, which will be $15 million. Investment consultant Dahab Associates is assisting with the search, and a copy of the RFP is available on the firm’s website. The search is being conducted because the contract with the current manager is expiring, Dahab senior research analyst Christopher Mills said in an email. Massachusetts state law requires pension funds to run a search for each mandate at least every seven years. The current manager for the mandate is Atlanta Capital Management, and they are invited to rebid, Mills said. North Attleboro has 10% target allocation to small cap equity, according to Mills. Proposals are due at noon on July 24.
Blackstone launched a new platform focused on supporting origination, underwriting and portfolio management in asset-based lending, a fast-growing segment of private credit. Blackstone Credit & Insurance announced that James Garlick, co‑founder of Wingspire, a Blue Owl Capital Corp. portfolio company, will serve as president of the new platform SablePointe Credit Strategies. Headquartered in Alpharetta, Ga., SablePointe will manage “senior secured asset-based and first-out credit facilities for corporate borrowers,” according to a news release. The launch positions Blackstone to compete more aggressively in asset-based lending as institutional investors seek alternatives to traditional corporate direct lending, where concerns over software exposure and AI-driven disruption have fueled recent business development company redemptions. “This is an important new platform for origination and strengthens our ability to be a one-stop capital solutions provider for companies,” said Aneek Mamik, head of financial services for asset based finance for BXCI, in the release. SablePointe focuses on sponsor-backed and corporate borrowers with deal sizes ranging from $50 million to over $1 billion, according to a spokesperson for Blackstone. Initially, SablePointe will support BXCI’s credit strategies with plans to expand to “additional specialty asset classes over time,” according to the release. Garlick is joined by co-founder and managing director for originations Travis Hunt from Citizens Financial Group; co-founder and managing director for credit Jerra Hayden, formerly of Texas Capital; and co-founder and managing director for credit Brian Kennedy, formerly of Citizens Bank. A spokesperson for Blue Owl did not immediately respond to request for comment on Garlick’s replacement. The launch comes as some investors pull back from software-heavy business development companies amid AI disruption concerns, making asset-backed strategies — tied to physical collateral rather than intangible assets — more attractive. At the same time, many institutional investors have continued allocating to private credit. Pensions & Investments has tracked 98 hires totaling $17.9 billion through June 15. Lending against physical assets, sometimes labeled as HALO (heavy assets, low obsolescence), has also been gaining more ground in institutional portfolios. Earlier this month Ares Management Corp. closed its oversubscribed asset-based finance fund Ares Pathfinder Fund III with $8.5 billion in commitments including allocations from the $55.8 billion Texas County & District Retirement System, Austin; the $7.61 billion San Mateo County Employees’ Retirement Association, Redwood City, Calif.; and the $4.9 billion Seattle City Employees’ Retirement System, according to Pensions & Investments data. While corporate direct lending makes up most of the private credit universe, Moody’s noted in a report earlier this year the growing momentum toward asset-based finance with partnerships “spurring greater capital origination.” “While more difficult to track, ABF has the potential to eclipse the size of the more traditional corporate lending,” Moody’s said. Blackstone’s infrastructure and asset-based credit business has $121 billion in assets under management.
CalPERS approved new incentive compensation metrics for executive and investment management staff and a revised annual incentive plan for CEO Marcie Frost on Tuesday, raising investment performance hurdles used in its compensation program as the $625.7 billion pension fund prepares to launch its total portfolio approach July 1. All new incentive metrics take effect July 1. The approved changes will phase in CalPERS’ new reference portfolio benchmark — the foundation of the fund’s total portfolio approach into incentive calculations over five years — increase the level of outperformance required to earn target and maximum payouts and modestly increase the share of Frost’s annual incentive tied to total fund investment performance. The recommendations from Global Governance Advisors, the board’s compensation consultant, otherwise leave most of CalPERS’ existing incentive framework intact. For fiscal year 2026-27, the reference portfolio will account for 20% of the rolling five-year total fund performance calculation, with the remaining 80% tied to the existing strategic asset allocation-based benchmark. The reference portfolio’s share will rise to 40% in fiscal year 2027-28, 60% in fiscal year 2028-29, 80% in fiscal year 2029-30 and 100% in fiscal year 2030-31. In September, Gilmore and his team recommended that the pension fund move from 11 asset class benchmarks to a single “reference portfolio” made up of 75% equity/25% bonds, a slight change from the current 72/28 reference portfolio implemented under the traditional strategic asset allocation. The approved changes also increase the amount by which CalPERS must outperform its reference portfolio benchmark to earn incentive payouts. Under the previous framework, target and maximum payouts were earned at 10 and 20 basis points above the benchmark, respectively. Under the new reference portfolio component, those thresholds increase to 40 and 80 basis points. Wilshire, CalPERS’ investment consultant, endorsed the new performance thresholds, noting that a 40-basis-point return above the reference portfolio would bring performance close to the fund’s 6.8% discount rate, while 80 basis points of outperformance would exceed it. Under Frost’s revised 2026-2027 incentive plan, the weighting assigned to total fund performance will increase to 20% from 15%, while the weighting assigned to enterprise operational effectiveness will decline to 15% from 20%. The changes excludes the CIO position, which will retain its existing incentive weighting structure. Last September, the CalPERS board awarded CEO Marcie Frost a fiscal year 2026 base salary of $619,440, up 3% from last year, and a fiscal year 2025 incentive compensation award of $766,782, a 15% increase. The remainder of Frost’s incentive plan remains unchanged. Organizational leadership priorities continue to account for 25% of the plan, customer service and stakeholder engagement each remain at 15%, and the investment office’s cost effectiveness measurement, or CEM, remains at 10%. The CEO plan also adopts the same total fund performance changes approved under the broader incentive metrics package, including the five-year phase-in of the reference portfolio and the higher target and maximum payout hurdles. CalPERS formally adopted TPA last year, making it the first U.S. public pension fund to fully embrace the strategy. A total portfolio approach means the fund is managed as one integrated portfolio rather than siloed asset classes, giving the CIO broad discretion while using a reference portfolio as a guide for overall risk, return and liquidity. In May, Steve Novakovic, managing director of educational programs at the Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst Association, said that the clearest way CalPERS can demonstrate its continued commitment to a total portfolio approach would be to revise its compensation structure. “The second that you change or adjust an incentive structure, you will see human behavior change. I do think the important thing to point out, though, is that human behavior can change quickly, but portfolios change slowly, so we might not see it in the performance numbers for a couple of years. ” Novakovic said at the time. CalPERS CIO Stephen Gilmore told P&I in February that compensation based on the performance of the whole fund was a critical aspect of TPA. In April, GGA first explored a range of potential compensation considerations associated with CalPERS’ transition to TPA. The approved changes do not alter compensation opportunities, base salaries, annual incentive ranges or long-term incentive ranges. CalPERS’ proposed fiscal year 2026-27 budget includes $43.5 million for annual incentive awards and $13.6 million for long-term incentive awards, although actual payouts will depend on metric outcomes, fund performance and individual performance.
New cash from wealth investors and rising valuations in private equity and venture capital are extending the growth trajectory for the semiliquid fund industry, even as redemptions climb among private credit vehicles, according to Morningstar. The semiliquid fund industry had $596.4 billion in assets as of March 31, an increase of nearly 4% from the fourth quarter and more than double its size at the end of 2022, according to Morningstar’s State of Semiliquid Funds 2026 report, released June 16. The growth comes despite major asset managers seeing high redemption requests at wealth-focused private credit funds, leading many to enforce gating mechanisms that capped withdrawals at 5% for the quarter. Private credit remains the largest category for semiliquid funds, but it is under pressure. Net assets for direct lending funds specifically dipped by about $400 million in the first quarter to $236.9 billion, according to Morningstar’s data. Among the 10 largest direct lending funds, net outflows were $1.8 billion. The redemption requests by wealth investors, spurred in part by concerns over software exposure in private credit and rising default rates, have led to increased scrutiny from Washington, even as institutional investors have largely stood firm in the private credit allocations. Brian Moriarty, a principal covering fixed income at Morningstar and co-author of the report, said this now marks two consecutive quarters of outflows among major private credit funds. He added that the fundamental outlook for private credit is still more positive than it was for private real estate following the COVID-19 pandemic, when it saw a similar wave of redemption requests, but said that fact wouldn’t necessarily be enough to stop this trend. “In terms of the flows, fundamentals might not matter. ... We know from the experience of the real estate funds that outflows can continue for years,” Moriarty said. “And we also know that from the experience of just the regular public market — like public high yield and bank loan mutual funds and ETFs — those regularly go through 1- to 2-year periods of 20-plus percent outflows. One could argue this is sort of normal investor behavior. All that to say, I would not be surprised if the redemptions continued for one, two, three more quarters as the market sort of corrects itself.” The equity side of the semiliquid fund industry has been offsetting the weakness in credit. Private equity assets grew 12.5% to $90.8 billion during the first quarter, thanks to a combination of net inflows and market gains, including markups of secondary transactions. Over the 12 months ended March 31, traditional private equity saw $14.5 billion in inflows. However, the Morningstar data did show that older vintage private equity funds are showing weaker performance than newer funds, in part because of the quick on-paper gains from secondary transaction markups. At least one older private equity fund is already publicly showing signs of stress. On June 3, Partners Group announced that it was enforcing a redemption gate on a private equity evergreen fund it first launched in 2007 and warned that the concerns in private credit were “spilling over into private equity.” Moriarty said Morningstar’s data doesn’t show Partners Group’s warning in the data — at least not yet. “We don’t really know until the quarter wraps and all the different redemption windows come in, at whatever time their schedule is, but certainly not in Q1 we didn’t see any of that. In Q2, again, Partners is the first that we’ve seen. At this point it’s too soon for us to know if that’s a one-off thing,” Moriarty said. Another bright spot is venture capital. Semiliquid venture capital fund assets nearly tripled in 2025 and then rose another 33.7% in the first quarter, jumping to $14.5 billion. Morningstar attributed this in part to excitement around the now public SpaceX as well as Anthropic and OpenAI, which are expected to have their own IPOs later this summer. Over the 12 months ended March 31, there were $8 billion of net inflows into venture capital semiliquid funds, including positive flows in the first quarter. In terms of the managers themselves, Blackstone is the largest provider of semiliquid funds by Morningstar’s calculations, with $120 billion of assets across the different categories. The next five biggest managers in the space — Cliffwater, Blue Owl, Ares, KKR and Apollo — have a combined $149 billion. All other managers have under $20 billion individually.
FrauDfense, a company owned by BBVA, Banco Santander and CaixaBank, has gone live with a a technology platform aimed at preventing fraud before it occurs through the secure exchange of information between financial institutions.
French FinTech ID Distribution (IDD) has expanded its partnership with issuer processing platform Thredd as it expands its offerings. IDD’s current offerings include Vaziva, an employee benefits and payments platform that features a card program that helps companies manage and distribute employee benefits, Thredd said in a Tuesday (June 16) press release. Thredd has supported IDD’s consumer offering in France since 2020. Now, with the partnership extended through 2030, Thredd will continue to support those programs as well as IDD’s planned launch in Spain, its forthcoming corporate card program, and its fraud transaction monitoring and 3DS support, according to the release. ID Distribution Chief Operating Officer Henri Riou said in the release: “Thredd has been a trusted partner as we have grown our card program in France, and we are pleased to extend that collaboration as we expand into new markets and launch new corporate payment solutions.” Thredd Chief Revenue Officer Kevin Fox said in the release: “As IDD enters its next chapter, we are proud to expand our work together and support its growth with the processing infrastructure, risk monitoring and payments expertise needed to scale across new use cases and markets.” Thredd delivers debit, credit, digital wallet and ledger capabilities to more than 100 customers across 50 countries, including FinTechs, digital banks and embedded finance providers, according to the release. In some other recent moves, Thredd teamed up with Visa and Zilch to offer more flexible payment options for consumers in the United Kingdom, with Cross River Bank to help international FinTechs enter the United States, and with Paywith to launch Australian card programs. The post Thredd Extends French FinTech Alliance for Corporate Payments Push appeared first on PYMNTS.com.
Fraud prevention in B2B payments has traditionally operated under the simple premise that if something went wrong, there would be time to fix it. But as real-time corporate payments networks, faster settlement mechanisms and digital commerce compress decision windows, finance teams are shifting from fraud recovery to fraud prevention. Findings in a new PYMNTS Data Book “How Bank-Linked Verification Cuts AR Payment Risk,” a PYMNTS Intelligence 2026 Certainty Project collaboration with Plaid, reveal that, among those firms that detect problems before settlement, 86% use step-up authentication for high-risk transactions. The objective is not merely to process transactions. It is to establish confidence in the transaction itself. After all, once money moves, recovery becomes more difficult; and once a fraudulent payment settles, the cost of remediation rises significantly. The challenge for corporate buyers and suppliers, however, is that much of the innovation driving today’s B2B payment infrastructure forward has focused on facilitating movement. Rather than focusing primarily on recovering from bad transactions, the report found firms today are investing in tools designed to determine whether a payment should be trusted before funds ever leave an account. The shift represents a fundamental change in the economics of fraud prevention. The challenge facing businesses is not simply fraud. It is uncertainty. Accounts receivable (AR) teams routinely confront questions about whether accounts are valid, whether payments will clear successfully and whether transaction requests are legitimate. Historically, many of these issues surfaced only after settlement, when options for intervention were limited. That approach reflected the realities of an earlier payments environment. Transactions moved relatively slowly, settlement windows created opportunities for intervention and payment operations were built around manual review processes. Fraud prevention was important, but much of the effort focused on minimizing losses after problems occurred. The objective was to move funds accurately and efficiently from one account to another. Verification occurred primarily during onboarding processes or through periodic reviews. Today, verification is becoming a continuous activity embedded directly into payment workflows. Organizations are increasingly seeking confirmation that an account exists, that ownership information matches expected records and that transaction behavior aligns with established patterns before payments are authorized. Read the report: How Bank-Linked Verification Cuts AR Payment Risk As settlement times shrink, businesses have less tolerance for ambiguity. Every payment must be evaluated quickly, often in real time, without sacrificing accuracy. That challenge is driving adoption of technologies capable of assessing risk before settlement rather than after it. One of the most notable developments is where many of those technologies originated. For years, consumer payments served as the innovation laboratory for fraud prevention. Banks, card networks and eCommerce platforms faced enormous volumes of fraud attempts and developed increasingly sophisticated tools to identify suspicious behavior without disrupting legitimate transactions. Among the most successful approaches was step-up authentication. Rather than requiring every user to complete multiple verification steps, institutions introduced additional authentication only when transactions exhibited elevated risk. An unusual purchase amount, a new device or an unfamiliar location could trigger a request for additional verification. The approach balanced security with convenience, and now, the same philosophy is finding its way into commercial payments. Businesses today face challenges similar to those encountered by consumer payment providers years ago. They need stronger fraud controls, but they cannot afford to create excessive friction for legitimate transactions. Treasury teams, accounts payable departments and finance organizations need ways to challenge potentially risky payments without slowing routine business activity. The result is growing adoption of risk-based verification models that apply additional scrutiny selectively rather than universally. What was once considered a consumer fraud prevention strategy is becoming an enterprise risk-management tool. The broader trend reflects a simple reality. In an environment defined by real-time payments and increasingly sophisticated fraud threats, businesses can no longer rely exclusively on controls designed for slower-moving systems. In the next phase of payments innovation, the most valuable capability may not be moving money faster. It may be knowing, with greater confidence, when not to move it at all. The most effective organizations are shifting fraud prevention upstream.
Deel is extending the reach of its global payroll and human resources platform to the oil and gas, mining, construction and heavy logistics industries. The new Deel Field Services (DFS) platform is purpose-built for organizations operating in on-site, medium- to high-complexity operations like these, enabling Deel to address the $120 billion field services market, the company said in a Tuesday (June 16) press release emailed to PYMNTS. The DFS platform is built for environments that require specialized pay structures; health, safety and environment compliance; rotational scheduling; and direct financial infrastructure, according to the release. It provides the infrastructure and expertise needed for danger pay, hardship premiums, and direct statutory accountability in remote or unstable markets, the release said. In addition, Deel is the legal employer of record and absorbs site-level liability and provides localized insurance coverage, per the release. Deel launched DFS Tuesday for organizations with medium- to high-complexity on-site operations in African markets. The company expects to add general availability for oil and gas, mining, construction and heavy logistics by the third quarter, and additional markets through 2027, according to the release. DFS is built on the infrastructure and expertise of Employ Africa Group (EAG), which Deel acquired in April 2025, the release said. The platform joins the HR infrastructure Deel already offers for remote teams, contractors and office-based employees, per the release. “By combining EAG’s on-the-ground expertise with Deel’s scale, we’re bringing compliance confidence, operational transparency and direct financial accountability to the most demanding workforce environments in the world,” Deel Co-Founder and CEO Alex Bouaziz said in the release. When Deel secured $300 million in a Series E funding round last October, the company said it aims to expand the capabilities and the global reach of its human resources and payroll platform. The company said at the time that it served more than 37,000 businesses and 1.5 million workers across 150 countries. “We’re reimagining how payroll should work for the next century — fluid, real-time and truly borderless — and continuing our mission to become the single platform where companies can build, manage and pay their teams anywhere in the world,” Bouaziz said in an October press release. The post HR Platform Deel Pursues $120 Billion Field Services Market appeared first on PYMNTS.com.
Send this story to anyone — or drop the embed into a blog post, Substack, Notion page. Every play sends rev-share back to storyflo · finance and markets.
We’ve simplified responses to 👍 / 👎. Past comments are archived but no longer visible.