Finance
Mason on finance and markets · June 18th
storyflo · finance and markets
Jun 18, 2026 · 31 min listen
Listen · storyflo · finance and markets
Mason on finance and markets · June 18th
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Live · Kokoro-82M
As readers know, the theme for the past several months has been buy dips. The dips vary in size, speed, duration, structure, but they all resolve the same: They get bought and the recent major dip last Wednesday (where we sold 170 points), did as well and we ripped 250+ points into today. How have they been buying these though? As I frequently discuss all major rallies in ES start on Failed Breakdowns, because Failed Breakdowns are how institutions accumulate. Institutions accumulate when ES flushes hard and goes elevator down - losing, and then recovering a big previously set low.
Hey Hummingbot community 👋 Since our last newsletter, we’ve been pushing improvements to the new Condor AI harness and the underlying Hummingbot API code repos on an almost-daily basis. Now, you can schedule and send regular reports via Telegram, as described in the podcast episode below, and use Condor with OpenRouter and other model providers. Currently, we’re overhauling the agent framework design, giving them personalization and memory, and improving their ability to help you manage trading bots. These Condor updates use the fresh, new v2.15.0 release, which we shipped yesterday. This release also includes a new connector to the Lighter perps DEX, which has been heavily requested by the community, along with fixes to Hyperliquid, position management in perpetual connectors, and other updates. I wanted to highlight a fun experiment we’re conducting with GRVT: a team trading competition that anyone can join, along with a new episode of The Bod Pod, in which Fede describes how he found a vulnerability in Jupiter’s RFQ system and became a white-hat hacker for a day. Finally, check out the new Hummingbot Reporting, a real-time dashboard of trading volume by exchange generated by active Hummingbot instances around the world. Michael Feng Co-founder, Hummingbot Our latest release includes the oft-requested connector to Lighter, exchange improvements, and security and AI upgrades across the stack. Highlights: New Lighter connector — Spot and perpetual connectors for Lighter, a decentralized exchange built on a zero-knowledge rollup with CLOB order books and verifiable on-chain execution. Includes candles data feeds for both markets. Hyperliquid improvements — Foundation builder code support for mainnet order attribution, fixed spot candles, websocket timeout for connection stability, and a fix for stale perpetual positions after partial close. Perpetual connector updates — Better ONEWAY position hold management across backtesting and live trading, improved position mode setting flow, and a fix for initial positions initialization. Tailscale security — Condor and Hummingbot API now support Tailscale, so you can reach order placement, balances, and bot control over a private tailnet instead of exposing port 8000 to the public internet. OpenRouter support in Condor — Use OpenRouter as an LLM provider for /agent , with access to a large model catalog through a single API key — including free models at $0 pricing.🔗 Chainstack RPC provider — Gateway adds Chainstack as a cross-chain RPC provider for Solana and EVM networks for lower latency and more reliable swap execution. Gateway CLMM fixes — Inverted BUY price fix on Orca/Meteora, real Uniswap pool balances, an optional binCount param onpool-info for liquidity distribution, and extended Ethereum tx receipt polling. The latest episode dives into the backstory behind a vulnerability in the JupiterZ RFQ system that our CTO Fede discovered and helped patch : We also discuss tokenized equities — Backpack exchange now offers transferable tokenized shares (e.g., SpaceX) and show off the new Condor reports feature, custom scheduled reports which now you can schedule and deliver via Telegram. We’ve launched a brand-new reporting site at reporting.hummingbot.org — a real-time window into Hummingbot usage worldwide. Since Jan 2025, Hummingbot instances have reported over $36B in aggregated trade volume across 300+ connectors from 100K+ instances. The dashboard tracks it all live: Live feed — Trade data collected by exchange, updating in real time as instances around the world report in. ⏱️ Minute-by-minute snapshots — Drill into per-minute activity (reports, instances, and volume), and click any snapshot to dig deeper. Headline metrics — Total trade volume, 24h volume, active instances, and active connectors at a glance. GRVT is officially launching their Team Trading League — a team-based trading competition — and we’re putting together a powerhouse Hummingbot team. This is a fantastic opportunity for our community to pool our trading volumes, collaborate on strategies, and climb the global leaderboard together. Learn more: GRVT Team Trading League details Join with our invite code: grvt.io/?ref=6ZUODT5 Form up, run your bots, and let’s climb the leaderboard with the Hummingbot community. The Agent Builders Cup is coming — a multi-round hackathon for builders creating trading agents on Hummingbot, culminating in the finals. Registration is open now. Beware of scammers impersonating the Hummingbot Foundation: We NEVER DM you first We NEVER sell or airdrop HBOT tokens HBOT is only earned through completing bounties Report suspicious activity in our Discord #scam-reports channel
Happy Wednesday friends! Tons of stuff going on! Let’s dive in! As always… stats/alerts/etc at top and tweets/news/links/videos/etc at bottom… and all tweets are hyperlinked so just click on them to pull them up on Twitter/X! Crypto (from @CryptoBubbles Total Crypto Market Cap: $2.327T QQQ (Nasdaq 100): $728.09 Gold: $4,290.20 Silver: $69.88 Oil (WTI): $76.48 US 10Y Treasury: 4.453% Crypto Fear & Greed Index (from coinmarketcap(dot)com): 24 (From @coingecko top 1000, by 24 hour change) All sorts of extremely bullish things happening in the world of Mantle dear frogs! As per the @Mantle_Official account: “-Tokenized @SpaceX equity ($SPCXx) by @xStocksFi, went live on Mantle, tradeable 24/7 via @Fluxion_network… -@MerchantMoe_xyz kicked off Project X alongside xStocks: incentivized liquidity provision around the clock with boosted $MNT rewards for $SPCXx holders… -@UR_global joined the @Circle Alliance Program… -@InsightXHQ, an AI-native prediction market, went live on Mantle, starting with World Cup season... -2026 World Cup predictions went onchain via @byreal_io Predict.... -@Bybit_Official teased something fresh landing on June 15, taking RWA beyond trading....” These are just a few of the bullish developments, so make sure to click here for more info! Also, make sure to check out the new report on Mantle from Messari, available via the @CryptoRick98 thread below! And as always make sure to follow Mantle on Twitter/X for more updates, and stay tuned as we continue shining a light on all the cool things they are doing! Chains are mixed today. 21 of the top 25 chains are green on the weekly. Protocols are also mixed. 18 of the top 25 protocols are green on the weekly. Here’s The Top 12 Fastest-Growing Chains By TVL On The Weekly With At Least $1M TVL (from @DefiLlama): Here’s The Top 12 Fastest-Growing Protocols By TVL On The Weekly With At Least $1M TVL (from @DefiLlama): Here’s The Top 12 Chains By 7 Day Stablecoin Inflow % (from @DefiLlama): (note: this includes new projects we find through combing Twitter each day and going through newly launched protocols added by @DefiLlama, limited primarily to new projects that have at least some TVL or are followed by at least some of our mutuals… Disclaimer: these are not pre-vetted by us so make sure to DYOR!) -New project called @monetrix_xyz has been added to @DefiLlama, categorized as basis trading protocol on Hyperliquid. Twitter bio states “From Trading Venue to Onchain Financial Layer Powered by @HyperliquidX”. Followed by 18 of our mutuals. -New project called @hyperdromeX has been added to @DefiLlama, categorized as a dex on Hyperliquid. Twitter bio states “The first agentic DEX on @hyperliquidX”.
Ad - Before we start — a big thanks to our podcast sponsor this week, Aware Super When it comes to retirement, having the right support can make all the difference. That’s why 1.2M Australians choose Aware Super. With friendly, Aussie‑based teams ready to assist, simple digital tools make it easy to manage your super, and strong security features to help safeguard your account, Aware Super supports you every step of the way. Whether you’re just starting to think about retirement or getting close, it’s all about making super easier to manage. Consider if this is right for you and read the PDS and TMD on website. Issued by Aware Super Pty Ltd, trustee of Aware Super. Over the past month, we’ve talked about planning for retirement, finding purpose beyond work and creating a life you’ll actually want to wake up to. But there is one final piece of the puzzle: how do you pay for it? In the final episode of our New Rhythm of Retirement series with Aware Super, I’m joined once again by Peter Hogg and Lynda Cross to tackle the money mechanics of retirement. We discuss one of the biggest psychological adjustments retirees face: moving from the predictable rhythm of a regular paycheck to funding your lifestyle from your own savings. We also explore the opportunities hidden within your biggest assets, including your super and family home, and unpack some of the strategies that can help stretch your retirement income further. As we know, retirement isn’t just about having enough money. It’s also about having the confidence to use it. LISTEN TO THIS EPISODE OF THE PODCAST HERE: The retirement mindset shift: Why seeing your super balance go down can feel so uncomfortable - and why it’s completely normal. How to build confidence in your retirement income: The simple planning techniques that can help reduce financial anxiety. Don’t let inflation quietly erode your savings: Why being too conservative can sometimes create its own risks. The downsizer contribution explained: How selling your home could help boost your super in the lead-up to retirement. Cash in the bank vs money in super: The trade-offs many retirees don’t realise they’re making. When life throws a curveball: How to access extra money without feeling like you’ve derailed your retirement plan. The Age Pension surprise: Why more Australians qualify for some level of support than they realise. One of the most valuable retirement benefits nobody talks about: And why it’s worth applying even if you think you’re only eligible for a small payment. Happy Prime Time podcast day! This week is the final in our panel-style-series with Aware Super. It’s been a real hoot to bring this different format to life, in-studio, that tackles both the life-issues and the money-issues in one show. As you no doubt can feel, the financial year is coming to a close and the next week is really the last window for any contributions you want to be making to super for the FY25/26 year. In fact most super funds close off their contributions by the 25th June, some earlier. So if you’ve got some tidying up to do - don’t delay. I did a long look through of all the options in the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age last weekend. You can read it here. “Over 50, use these 7 ways to boost your super by July 1” Even if you can’t make a contribution, take a minute to look at your balance, check your investment returns are close to what you expect, and take a note of the fees you’re paying. And think about whether you might be able to afford to put a salary sacrifice in place to pay your super before tax next year. Finally, ask yourself - is it worth booking in some super-advice for the next month or two and checking everything is on track and in order. Once you’ve done that, pat yourself on the back for being proactive and thinking about your super! It’s worth it! Hope you enjoy the show. Thanks for listening! Cheers Bec Xx
Capital Flows has a new daily structure where I will do a stream every market session, breaking down the macro regime so that you have clarity on WHERE we are and conviction on WHAT to do. The first section of today’s live stream went over the entire speech by Kevin Warsh and explained the new regime playbook that he is implementing. If you were trying to understand how the mechanics of forward guidance and its impact on interest rates are going to function over the next three months, this video explains all of it. You can find the free recording on the Warsh Playbook here in the YouTube video. The recording of the live member section of the stream, where we cover how the new regime tangibly connects to price action, is linked at the bottom of this report. The last two livestreams and connected reports contextualizing today’s press conference can be found here (if you are long Hyperliquid or the S&P500, you should read these): The livestream for tomorrow will cover how we are approaching a cliff in the global carry trade. This is one of the most important drivers of macro liquidity that is fundamentally misunderstood. The first section of the stream will cover the mechanics of how this works, the second section for paid members will directly connect it to price action with a playbook for trading and managing risk. If you are on the fence about becoming a paid member, this would be a great time to commit for an initial month to see all of the proprietary analysis. Paid subscribers can join the livestream with this link: Here is the proprietary report explaining HOW to understand interest rate risk, inflation risk, and the connection to the new Warsh Playbook:
$15.7 trillion—that’s the payment volume Visa moved in FY 2024, translating to $35.9 billion in net revenue. The same principle shows up elsewhere: Jane Street logged $20.5 billion in trading revenue last year, simply by sitting in the order‑flow rather than trying to predict markets.
The piece frames this as a timeless business pattern—position yourself where value moves, capture a slice, and let network effects do the rest. Crypto just makes the rails programmable, instant, and global, so the “money‑flow” model can be built from day one instead of retrofitted onto legacy systems.
For founders, the practical lens is to ask: where does the value in my target market flow? Can I design a fee or token that aligns participants and scales with volume? If the answer is yes, you
The Augusta Rule for a crypto LLC comes from IRC Section 280A(g), which lets you rent your home to your own business for up to 14 days a year and exclude that rent from your personal income. The business pays fair-market rent for real use, like board meetings and strategy sessions, deducts it, and you report none of the income on your return. It only works if your LLC is a separate taxpayer. A single-member LLC that files as a disregarded entity is you renting to yourself, and the IRS treats it that way. The deduction holds up on paperwork: a written agreement, fair-market comps, a genuine business purpose, and minutes that show what happened. Charging the business $5,000 for a backyard barbecue with no agenda is the kind of move that draws an audit and loses. The mechanics are specific and the line between legitimate and aggressive is thin, so model it with a CPA before you run it. I have watched crypto founders track every wallet to the satoshi and then leave one of the cleanest deductions in the tax code sitting on the table. They run actual businesses. A trading LLC, a mining operation, a fund that holds the family stack. They hold meetings about serious money. And every one of those meetings happens at the kitchen table or the home office, for free, when the tax code says the business could be paying them rent that never gets taxed. That is the Augusta Rule. Congress wrote it into law in 1976, and it is still on the books. So let us walk through how it works for a crypto holding or trading LLC, and where the floor gives out if you push too hard. The Augusta Rule is the nickname for a short provision in the tax code, IRC Section 280A(g). The name comes from Augusta, Georgia. Homeowners there rented their houses to visitors during the Masters golf tournament every spring and did not want that one-week windfall taxed. Congress agreed and wrote the exception into law. The rule itself is one sentence of plumbing. If you use a home as a residence and rent it for fewer than 15 days in the year, you do not report the rental income, and you do not deduct rental expenses against it. The IRS spells out the same thing in plain language on its own page about renting residential property: rent the place for fewer than 15 days and you do not report the income. Read that again with a business in the room. The income is tax-free to you. And if the renter happens to be your own company, the company still gets to deduct the rent as a business expense. One payment, deductible on one side, invisible on the other. That is the whole engine. The practical limit is 14 days, because day 15 breaks it. Rent for 15 days or more and the exclusion is gone, every dollar becomes reportable rental income, and you are into the normal rental rules. The cliff is hard. There is no partial credit. Picture a holder who runs a crypto venture through an LLC. Could be a trading entity, a mining business, or the structure that holds and manages the family’s digital assets. The business has decisions to make: rebalancing, custody and key management, security reviews, tax positions, the quarterly numbers. Those decisions need meetings. The Augusta Rule lets the business hold them at your home and pay you rent for the space. Here is the flow, step by step: The LLC holds a legitimate business meeting at your home. A quarterly strategy session. An annual planning offsite. A security and custody review with your team. The LLC pays you fair-market rent for the day, the kind of rate a hotel or conference venue in your area would charge for comparable space. The business deducts that rent as an ordinary business expense, which lowers its taxable income. You receive the money and, because it falls under the 14-day window, you exclude it from your personal income entirely. Repeat up to 14 days a year. Run the numbers. Say comparable meeting space in your market runs $1,500 a day, and the LLC holds 12 legitimate meetings at your home over the year. That is $18,000 the business deducts and $18,000 you collect tax-free. At a 37% federal rate on the business income that rent offsets, the deduction is worth roughly $6,660. The cash moved from your company to your pocket and skipped the tax that normally rides along. For a crypto LLC the fit is natural, because so much of this work already happens at home. The founder who reviews cold-storage procedures in a home office, or walks through the year’s gains with a partner over the dining table, is already holding the meeting. The rule just says the business can pay for the room. This is the part that decides whether the strategy survives a second look. The Augusta Rule is legitimate. Sloppy execution of it is not, and the IRS knows the difference. The deduction holds up on documentation and on the reality behind it. Four things carry the weight: A written rental agreement between you and the LLC. It names the property, the dates, the daily rate, and the business purpose.
The thing nobody tells you about financial stability is that it’s mostly invisible. From the outside it can look like restraint, or willpower, or some natural talent for saying no. But spend enough time actually watching how financially grounded people operate, and you start to notice something different. It’s not discipline in the way we usually mean it. It’s structure. A certain kind of clarity about what money is for — and more importantly, what it isn’t for. The gap between financial stress and financial stability is about the patterns underneath. The decisions that happen before a crisis, not during one. The way someone relates to a money map not as a punishment but as information. You can’t unsee that shift. This is a lens. A way of recognizing what’s already available to you that you might not be using. What Changes When You Change the Pattern Something shifts when the pattern changes. It’s hard to name at first. Bills still arrive. Life still surprises you. But the reaction is different — less bracing, less scrambling. The urgency that used to follow money around starts to loosen. All because you changed. It’s difficult to notice it happening. That’s how gradual it is. One day you realize you haven’t checked your bank account with dread in a while. That the unexpected expense last month didn’t spiral. That you made a decision about money and felt — not certain, but grounded. That’s the thing worth building toward. Not a number. A feeling you can actually sustain.
SpaceX blasts past Amazon at $2.66 trillion, Bezos left choking in the dust Fable 5 blackout over? Kalshi bettors loading up on quick Anthropic fix Rich Californians race to donate cash and dodge proposed billionaire tax NYC council votes to lock in city-owned grocery stores forever by law Defense boom alert! GM and Lockheed combine forces to flood capacity CBOE VIX Volatility: 16.81 (🔼 2.38%) SpaceX shares have soared 55% above its $135 dollar IPO price in just days after debuting publicly, driven by tiny available float and new derivatives rather than company fundamentals as technical pressures build before major index inclusions. Tiny Float Scarcity Drives: Only 555.6 million shares sold representing five percent of stock creates extreme demand with another 83.3 million from overallotment while insiders remain locked. Options Activity Boosts Buying: New options trading sees market makers purchasing underlying shares to hedge calls generating immediate upward pressure this week on the stock. Hedge Funds Anticipate Demand: Arbitrageurs buy ahead expecting passive trackers to purchase when SpaceX enters FTSE Russell MSCI and Nasdaq-100 indexes over coming weeks. Potential Hype Tax Looms: Analysts highlight spectacular IPO openings often disappoint with median one-year return negative 15.6% after opening trade. Sponsored by Finance Buzz If you have outstanding credit card debt, getting a new 0% intro APR credit card could help ease the pressure while you pay down your balances. Our credit card experts identified top credit cards that are perfect for anyone looking to pay down debt and not add to it! Some are even offering generous welcome bonuses up to $250! Click through to see what all the hype is about. Elon Musk-led SpaceX shares rose two percent in premarket Wednesday after surging around 62% since Friday IPO pushing valuation past Amazon briefly to fourth-largest US company at $2.66 trillion despite recent losses. Consistent Gains Continue: Stock climbed after blockbuster IPO with investors betting on Musk ability to deliver long-term returns including possible one trillion revenue by 2030. Lofty Valuation Questions Raised: Company posted $4.9 billion net loss in 2025 and $4.28 billion loss in first quarter yet excitement drives trading action. Fundamentals Must Match Excitement: Experts note rubber meets road when fundamentals need to align with enormous valuation likely taking couple years to grow into. Starlink Dominance Highlighted: Firm leads in satellites through Starlink service and reusable rockets fueling investor bets on ambitious growth plans ahead. Prediction market traders on Kalshi assign 58% chance Anthropic restores access to Fable 5 model for US customers by July 1 after disabling it Friday to comply with US government order limiting foreign reach. Higher Odds By July: Traders give 74% probability model returns by July 10 following company meeting with Trump administration officials on Monday. Compliance Disabled All Access: Anthropic suspended model for every customer to ensure no foreign nationals could use it after federal directive. Recent Model Announcement: Decision came days after unveiling Fable 5 previously tangled with administration over supply chain risk label in March. Polymarket Matches Optimism: Separate platform shows 67% odds access restores to US customers by July 1. High-net-worth Californians are ramping up philanthropy and balance-sheet restructuring to drop net worth below $1 billion dollars ahead of proposed 5% one-time billionaire tax targeting roughly 200 residents due in 2027. Prefer Charities Over Government: Clients would rather funds support effective nonprofits than Sacramento spending they distrust according to advisors handling multiple cases. Signatures Trigger Ballot Push: Union collected 1.55 million signatures nearly double requirement placing measure on November ballot for assets over $1 billion. Creative Avoidance Tactics: Methods include delaying funding rounds pulling real estate into personal trusts and buying art or yachts kept outside state 270 days yearly. Voters Back Tax Idea: About 54 % of California voters support the billionaire tax per recent Public Policy Institute poll. New York City council members propose codifying Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s plan requiring at least five municipal grocery stores per borough permanently after he announced Bronx location opening next year with 70 million dollars allocated. City Owns Land Overhead: Public ownership eliminates costs passed to consumers while private operator handles daily operations passing savings on staple items. Aim For Food Access: Initiative strengthens neighborhood availability delivering affordable high-quality groceries across all five boroughs. Partnership With Operators: Commissioner designates agency to partner with contracted entities through proposals for store development and management. Mamdani Socialist Vision: Self-described democratic socialist mayor seeks five sites by end
not financial advice! Anthropic begged for AI rules then Trump sent them to the guillotine Snapchat bets the farm on $2,000 dollar “AR” glasses, stock pukes on reality This is textbook karma with a side of blood money. Dario Amodei spent years pimping “serious binding regulation,” praising Trump’s EO like a choirboy, writing essays demanding governments block unsafe models and then boom, Friday night the admin slaps export controls, yanks Fable 5 and Mythos 5 from every foreign national including their own staff over cyberattack prompts Amazon flagged. National security hammer, no appeal, right after Anthropic bragged they got government sign-off. They cry “misunderstanding,” jet execs to D.C. for grovel meetings, while their trillion-dollar IPO pipeline hits turbulence. Winners? Trump crew flexing real teeth, OpenAI and Google quietly laughing as the loudest safety scolds bleed first, defense stocks dodging this mess, quiet operators who never begged for chains. Losers? Amodei’s virtue-signal brand torched, bagholders watching safety theater turn into self-inflicted blackout, every AI exec who thought regulation would shield them. Next? They cave fast, models flicker back after “technical fixes,” but trust evaporates, valuation haircut incoming, lawsuits drag. Short the whiners, load the silent killers who ship without sermons. This town eats its own when you ask for the whip then whine when it cracks. Profit from the hypocrisy. Sponsored by Finance Buzz If you have outstanding credit card debt, getting a new 0% intro APR credit card could help ease the pressure while you pay down your balances. Our credit card experts identified top credit cards that are perfect for anyone looking to pay down debt and not add to it! Some are even offering generous welcome bonuses up to $250! Click through to see what all the hype is about. Snapchat just dropped two-grand Specs AR glasses claiming post-iPhone era, shared laser-tag with kids instead of neck-craning screens. Two-hundred buck deposit, ships later, lighter bigger display, four-hour battery, but Snap’s core business bleeds money yearly and shares tanked four percent midday. He shrugs competitors like Meta Ray-Ban and Google AI specs calling them toys. Winners? Early developer suckers and Snapchat’s long-term delusion holders if it hits. Losers? Snap shareholders again, young core audience who can’t afford rent let alone two-K glasses, Wall Street watching another hardware fumble. Next? Inflation kills premium uptake, Meta/Google crush with scale and cash, Snapchat’s subsidiary burns more capital before pivot or bust. This screams desperation play from a company that never made profit. Short the rip, buy the eventual fire sale. Consumers ain’t ditching phones for pricey see-through toys yet. Vision is cute until the balance sheet screams. We make money on facts not fantasies around here. These tartan lunatics just showed demand beats supply every time. Scotland’s World Cup “Tartan Army” rolled into Boston, drank Sam Adams dry, four times holiday volume, emergency trucks scrambling Saturday morning. Hennessy’s tripled St. Paddy’s, sold out cold. Federal Wine fridge door broke from the stampede. Fans marching on Fenway, victory-lapping after Haiti win. Winners? Brewers, bar owners, liquor stores, every hospitality play riding the surge. Losers? Inventory managers who didn’t stock up and any fool who thinks soccer tourism is soft. Next? Bars reorder triple, Boston taps into permanent World Cup cash machine, related stocks pop on fan-economy data. This ain’t cute – it’s raw consumer frenzy printing margin. Americans love winners who spend like pirates. Load up on beverage names, hospitality REITs, anything touching thirsty crowds. Weak-kneed analysts calling it one-off get fired. This wave’s just starting, and will roll all the way to the Final. Game on! Wake up and smell the cash tsunami. Joaquin Duato just went on Fox and flat-out credited Trump’s tax policy for unlocking Johnson & Johnson’s monster fifty-five billion dollar U.S. investment blitz, including a cool billion in a shiny new Vision manufacturing plant in Jacksonville, Florida. He straight-up said they were “playing with a hand tied behind our back” until this administration made them competitive again. Goal now? Make every pill, device, and breakthrough right here in America, high-skilled jobs, real factories, actual confidence in U.S. muscle.
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