The UK launched an A2A Open-banking scheme called the UK Payments Initiative (UKPI). The initial use case will be recurring bill payment: This is a scheme only, not a switch. That makes it more like NACHA in the US. It will use the UK’s Faster Payments rails to move money The scheme is a collaboration between regulated Fintechs and banks. The Fintechs are regulated under a variety of charters: PSPs, EMIs, & APIs Future use cases include subscription payments and eCommerce payments The ultimate goal is to create: “… a viable alternative to traditional card-based payments …” The scheme provides some benefits to bill pay consumers: Limits on Amounts: Consumers can cap the ticket size for each biller. Unclear what happens if a legitimate bill exceeds that limit Limits on duration: Consumers can set an end date for each recurring bill. Unclear what happens if that end date arrives before the consumer’s obligations expire, such as paying off a loan No timing controls: The scheme does not seem to provide control on when the bill gets paid. Some US services align bill pay with payroll deposits to ensure sufficient liquidity The scheme provides some benefits to Banks Revenue lift: UKPI imposes a 5.5p (US 7¢) access fee on the Fintechs. Since most bill pay uses BACS (US ACH) at no fee, banks earn more on UKPI Lower cost: While Faster Payments have higher processing costs than BACS, it has many fewer high-cost exceptions UKPI is like to satisfy some of its goals, but not all It will anchor Banks’ role in the payment system as all Faster Payment transactions must originate at a bank It will not take volume from cards until it tackles eCommerce Bill Pay mostly displaces BACS Subscriptions displace BACS and low-ticket card payments that account for a fraction of card TPV eCommerce could take a big share of card TPV, but requires a full disputes process, like chargebacks, that doesn’t yet exist; it also requires merchant connectivity It is unlikely to become global Faster Payments is not yet interoperable with other Instant schemes Stablecoins & Tokenized Deposits may erode card network cross-border volumes well before UKPI could meaningfully globalize It won’t translate to the US, not least because the US does not yet allow Fintechs to initiate Instant payments and because high Credit Card interchange anchors consumers via rich rewards The US relies on low-cost ACH for most recurring bills and may migrate to the Request for Payment version of Instant as a future option Subscriptions are on tokenized cards or ACH, both with modest costs due to low ticket sizes eCommerce uses credit & debit cards, where rewards anchor spend Conclusions UKPI takes a creative approach to a UK-centric problem It may succeed on Bill Pay and Subscriptions eCommerce remains an open question given the required integrations and dispute processes; only this use case would meaningfully erode card TPV UKPI won’t translate to the US or displace the networks in cross-border Developed countries rarely introduce new payments schemes, particularly a private-sector scheme. The last new private sector US networks were Real Time Payments from The Clearing House and Zelle from Early Warning – both bank-owned utilities whose planning started around 2015. I don’t think the new TCH utility to settle Tokenized Deposits counts as a scheme; if it does, then maybe it isn’t such a rare event! Of course, the Fed introduced Fednow, but that isn’t private sector. The UK banks just announced a new A2A scheme with the explicit goal of displacing card-based payments and BACS (i.e., ACH): “UK Payments Initiative Ltd (UKPI) launched a scheme designed for the next-generation of open banking payments, marking a turning point in the availability of alternatives to traditional card-based and direct debit payments … Developed collaboratively with banks and fintechs, UKPI’s scheme establishes a shared rulebook, commercial model and operational standards for flexible, automated, or recurring account-to-account payments, powered by open banking. These payments can be used initially for payments to the government, utilities, charities, financial services, and more.” UKPI is a scheme but not a physical network. The closest US equivalent would be NACHA, which sets ACH rules but does not operate an ACH switch. UKPI Clearing and settlement appear to use the Faster Payments network, the UK’s equivalent to Fednow & RTP. UKPI seems to have set aside bank/Fintech friction. The UK long ago mandated Open Banking on a broader basis than even Rule 1033 would do in the US. In particular, the UK offers PISP (Payment Initiation Service Provider), which allows regulated Fintechs to push out a consumer-permissioned payment from behind bank firewalls. Rule 1033 only addresses data extraction, it does not open the way to payment initiation. This post will explain how UKPI operates and what problems it tries to solve.
U.S. core PCE price index annual rate for May is penciled in at roughly 2.6%, the Fed’s go‑to inflation readout, set to drop Thursday.
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DAILY NEWS WALL | JUNE 21, 2026 (LIVE) GEO / WAR “LAKE LUCERNE SUMMIT”: Vance + Witkoff + Kushner met Iran’s delegation (Speaker Qalibaf, FM Araghchi) face-to-face at the Bürgenstock resort — first high-level direct US-Iran talks Vance: chance to “turn over a new leaf,” “great progress has been made,” “never before has Iranian and American leadership met at such a high level”; touted lower US gas prices Pakistan + Qatar mediators in the room; the Iranians declined to stand beside the US/mediators for cameras BUT Trump (from Camp David): “we’ll hit Iran VERY HARD again, just like last week, only harder!!!” if its “highly paid PROXIES in Lebanon” keep causing trouble Iran state media: talks entered a “DIFFICULT PHASE” and recessed after an “insulting” US message Pezeshkian: “we will never back down from the right to enrich uranium, and the other side is also forced to accept it”; Araghchi: “implementation is more important than signing” Ghalibaf (X): “they would do better to be careful... our armed forces are prepared to respond... it is we who act” Hormuz dispute persists: Iran says “closed again,” CENTCOM says 55 vessels + 17M+ barrels transited Saturday safely; IRGC warned vessels to avoid the strait Trump’s toll threat: US tolls on Hormuz if no final deal in 60 days (”Guardian Angel... services rendered”) Sen. Graham (CBS): if the deal fails, “Trump is going to take over the Strait of Hormuz by force... charge a fee... expand the Abraham Accords” Israeli Lebanon strikes killed ~20 (June 20-21) despite a reported Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire; emergency Lebanon session added to the Swiss agenda Trump approval in a slump; midterms <5 months away = political pressure to close a deal Pentagon: full mine clearance up to 6 months; insurers cite 40-50 days before carriers transit ⸻ MACRO / POLICY US markets CLOSED for the weekend; the hawkish FOMC + the Lake Lucerne talks set Monday’s tone Wednesday’s FOMC still dominates: one 2026 quarter-point HIKE fully priced; 9 of 18 dots project a hike; 2026 median dot 3.8%; PCE forecast raised to 3.6% The Dollar Index “on the verge of a major breakout” remains crypto’s most direct headwind (”Warsh killed crypto’s rate-cut trade”) Brent ~$75-80 (pre-conflict levels), down ~9% on the week as 16-17M barrels/day exit Hormuz; the disinflationary counterweight IMF + World Bank + IEA: if oil shipping doesn’t normalize, “increasing risks for fuel security” as summer demand picks up This week’s data: durable goods, May personal income/spending (PCE), June PMIs Softer June CPI + PCE expected mid-July on lower oil = the 60-90 day path to a less-hawkish September dot plot Fed proposed requiring payment-stablecoin issuers to hold reserves = regulatory groundwork building Japan’s yen near a 40-year low; intervention bets = a global-liquidity wildcard “Bitcoin + gold the only major assets red in 2026” = the higher-for-longer dollar regime at work ⸻ MARKETS / ENERGY Brent ~$75-80 (-9% week); record 16-17M barrels exited Hormuz daily; the peace-dividend disinflation Last session (Thu): Russell 2000 +2.12%, Nasdaq +1.91%, S&P +1.08%, Dow +0.14%; Friday closed (Juneteenth) Pixar’s “Toy Story 5” lassoed the BIGGEST opening weekend in franchise history: $160M Cramer: “the AI trade has left the hyperscalers in the dust” = the leadership-rotation debate intensifies Dollar Index breakout risk = pressure on all risk assets into Monday Gold + Bitcoin the only major assets RED in 2026 = the dollar/rate regime Nasdaq quarterly rebalance June 22 (tomorrow) adds Astera Labs, CoreWeave, Nebius, Rocket Lab, Teradyne SpaceX (SPCX) world’s 5th-largest stock; consolidating FIFA World Cup 2026 ongoing; Kraken official crypto exchange ~20% of Bitcoin miners unprofitable; public miners sold 32,000+ BTC in Q1 = a supply overhang ⸻ TECH / AI / REGULATION Cramer: “the AI trade has left the hyperscalers in the dust” — what will it take for MSFT/GOOGL/AMZN to catch up? Nasdaq-100 June 22 rebalance: Astera Labs, CoreWeave, Nebius, Rocket Lab, Teradyne ADDED Franklin Templeton filed for two “Bitcoin DRIP” ETFs (hold US stocks, reinvest dividends into BTC; effective as early as Sept 1) A major Wall Street bank filed AMENDED spot-ETF applications for both Ethereum AND Solana Fed proposed requiring payment-stablecoin issuers to maintain reserves = stablecoin regulatory framework advancing Microsoft found malware that hijacks crypto wallets + spreads via USB sticks (harvests private keys from the Windows clipboard) SpaceX (SPCX) world’s 5th-largest stock; tokenized SPCX trades on Solana; holds 18,712 BTC NVDA-Anthropic partnership “scaling very, very quickly” — Huang CLARITY Act on the Senate floor NOW; “the 7-Democrat math is all that’s left”; White House July 4 signing target stands Standard Chartered: XRP ETFs could pull $8B if CLARITY passes = the codification c
Deutsche Bank now sees two Fed hikes this year—totaling 50 basis points—and the federal funds rate ending 2026 at 4.1 %.
The shift stems from sticky inflation and a hawkish tone from new Chair Kevin Walsh, with core PCE projected at 3.2 % for year‑end.
Their base case targets hikes in September and December, though an earlier move or a 75‑bp tightening scenario isn’t ruled out.
For markets, the update reinforces a “higher‑for‑longer” outlook, keeping pressure on rate‑sensitive assets and suggesting continued volatility in fixed‑income as investors adjust.
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There aren’t enough women getting enough opportunity to make movies. I get that, but it’s not what I want to discuss here today. As I was watching Toy Story 5 and realizing that the movie is not really about Woody and Buzz, but about Jessie (vs a female representation of tech), it occurred to me that since the run of Bob Chapek utterly fucking up Disney’s animation business (with support from COVID), we have seen a serious turn towards women being leaders at the box office in a serious way. Sticking to animation to start, 8 animated movies released in 2024, 2025, and what we have of 2026 have grossed over $150 million. Toy Story 5 is Jessie’s story, as she leads the group to re-connect a girl distracted by electronic media, with Buzz and Woody as side pieces. Inside Out 2 is about a teen girl and her female-led brain. Moana 2 is about a teen girl who is saving her culture with an assist from an egocentric macho man/demi-god. Zootopia 2 is led by Judy Hopps with a co-equal male… but she drives story both times. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is about 2 boys “saving” 2 girls, kinda. Despicable Me 4 is built around Baby Gru and the rest of the gang, with a new female villain. Kung Fu Panda 4 continues to be about the goofy male panda and his quests. Hoppers is about a young girl who ends up in an animal body, created by female scientists. So we have 2 films (2 of the 3 longest running franchises) clearly led by male characters and 7 films in this elite group led by female characters. Interestingly, the next box office tier down, $50 million - $149 million domestic grossers, has 10 animated titles in the 2.5 box office years. The top grosser of the group is female-led. The Wild Robot is about a female-voiced robot who ends up living in nature. $144 million. But after that, it’s testosterone central: Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba Infinity Castle ($137m) Migration ($128m) GOAT ($103m) Dog Man ($98m) The Garfield Movie ($92m) The Bad Guys 2 ($83m) David ($90m) Elio ($73m) Transformers One ($59m) It almost makes you feel bad for the boys! I count 7 more major animated releases this year. Minions & Monsters is the next one up. I read the Minions as male, but they remain sexually ambiguous in many ways. Paw Patrol: The Dino Movie is for the under-12 set with a male boy lead. Forgotten Island is very much led by 2 girls on an adventure and after a great reaction at CinemaCon, is pretty sure to be the #2 or #3 for the rest of the year’s releases, behind Minions and competing with Hexed. But in the $150m+ club. Wildwood is a female-led Laika modern fairy tale. The Cat in the Hat is a classic with a brother and sister following The Cat. Hexed is the story of a young woman drawn into a literally magical world. The Angry Birds Movie 3 is more male than female 2027 has a load of major sequels… 6. Ice Age: Boiling Point The Garfield Movie 2 Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse Shrek 5 Untitled Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem sequel Frozen III That’s a lot of testosterone, even though Garfield and the Mutant Turtles are really the 2 that don’t have much female energy balance within their movies. And of course, Frozen III will let girls go crazy and boys will tag along. I expect all of these to succeed. Moving on to the live action side… Again, in 2024, 2025, and what we have gone through of 2026 so far, there have been 78 live-action films that have grossed over $50 million domestic. (Numbers from the last months still growing… but have to pick a range) 44 of those films have had primarily male leads and have grossed $7 billion for an average of $159 million per film.
If April was the month the market learned to ignore geopolitics, May was the month it received the invoice for the AI buildout. And the invoice is enormous. Start with the most symbolic headline of the period: Anthropic confidentially filed for a US IPO, jumping ahead of OpenAI in a race that looks less technological and more financial by the week. Its last round valued the company near $1.0T. SpaceX was marching toward its own mega-IPO at a reported $1.75 trillion, and OpenAI expects to list within a year. Some of the most important private companies on Earth are trying to squeeze through the public-market window at the same time, competing for a pool of capital that is vast, but not infinite. Anthropic will be the first foundational-model company to show audited numbers to the market. If its unit economics convince, it validates the entire ecosystem. If they reveal a structure addicted to compute spend and external financing, it cracks the narrative holding up much of the American market. Either way, we will finally see the cards. Meanwhile, the balance-sheet war escalated. Alphabet launched an equity raise of up to $80 billion, upsized to roughly $85 billion on demand, the largest corporate equity raise in history, including a $10 billion direct investment from Berkshire Hathaway. Think about that: one of the best cash-generating businesses ever created now needs equity, more than $85 billion of new debt over the past year, and at-the-market programs to keep pace. Days later, Meta was reported to be weighing its own raise of tens of billions, and the stock fell 6% on the news. Buffett’s stamp legitimizes the capex. It does not answer the harder question: search was a flywheel monopoly that was cheap to serve. Generative AI, so far, looks like converging models, mobile researchers, and users who switch providers in one click. Everyone is investing for monopoly rents. The market may end up paying commodity returns. We position accordingly, owning the toll roads, not the race cars. Nvidia, for its part, opened a new front: RTX Spark, a chip built with MediaTek and Microsoft to run AI agents locally on the PC, paired with the Vera CPU. It is a direct invasion of Intel, AMD, Qualcomm and Apple territory, and their pre-market reactions showed the fear. AMD is effectively validating the same thesis, racing to turn every premium PC into an AI workstation through its Ryzen AI platform and dedicated NPUs. After the cloud training boom, the next battle moves to the edge. Qualcomm is already calling 2026 the year of agents. Narrative is not adoption, but the direction is unmistakable: AI is becoming a permanent layer of the personal computer. The Fed confirmed it. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the June 17 FOMC held rates at 3.50-3.75% by a unanimous 12-0 vote, but the projections underneath flipped hawkish: nine of eighteen participants now pencil in at least one hike before year-end, the median dot moved to 3.8% (from a March reading that still implied a cut), and seventeen of eighteen judged inflation risks tilted to the upside. The man Trump installed to cut is holding and hinting at hikes, because tariffs, the Iran energy shock, and the AI investment boom have kept inflation sticky, with May CPI at 4.2%, a three-year high. Warsh stripped the statement to 130 words, scrapped forward guidance, and said the commitment to price stability is unanimous and unambiguous. The market got the message: stocks fell on the day, the two-year yield jumped 16 basis points to its highest in over a year, and the dollar had its best session in nearly a year. After five years above target, the bar for cuts is now demonstrably higher than the market spent the spring discounting. Even Trump has gone quiet on rate cuts. That tells you everything. And then, the resolution. For weeks the market kept trading Strait of Hormuz headlines while the physical market drained underneath it, onshore inventories falling at one of the fastest paces in history, strategic reserves released at 9 to 10 million barrels per week. The binary we flagged, either the IRGC controls Hormuz or it does not, finally broke the right way: on June 15 the US and Iran announced a peace deal, Trump declared the Strait would reopen shortly, and oil fell hard. The tail risk that hung over energy, travel, and inflation for two months has been cut off at precisely the moment the market wanted it gone. The relief was immediate and broad. Which brings us to the headline that crystallizes the moment: SpaceX went public on June 12 in the largest IPO in history, raising roughly $75 billion (more than $85 billion with the greenshoe) at a $135 offer price, then surged 19% on debut and another 20% on its first full session, vaulting past a $2 trillion valuation. Musk is already floating a path to ~$1 trillion of revenue by 2030, and the newly public giant is wasting no time, reportedly moving to acquire coding-tool maker Cursor in a deal valued around $60 billion.
Around $10 billion of overseas debt is now being lined up by Indian banks, a move that could give the rupee a modest lift. The funding push comes as state‑backed lenders, led by the State Bank of India, look to tap foreign markets to broaden their balance sheets and support growth in the world’s fastest‑growing major economy.
The banks are targeting a mix of sovereign and corporate bonds, with the aim of diversifying financing sources beyond domestic deposits. By tapping global investors, they hope to lock in lower borrowing costs, which should translate into a slightly tighter rupee‑dollar spread.
Policymakers see this as a way to deepen capital markets and reduce reliance on short‑term capital flows. The RBI has signaled that it will keep an eye on the currency impact, but the consensus is that the added depth will be a net positive for stability.
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Stimson Center Senior Fellow Kelly Grieco argues the new memorandum of understanding largely restores the prewar status quo rather than delivering decisive gains for the United States, calling it a "strategic defeat" for the US. (Source: Bloomberg)
Emerging-market stocks rose to a fresh record as the US and Iran agreed upon a roadmap to a final peace deal, indicating progress in talks that have proceeded in fits and starts amid threats by President Donald Trump.
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