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Politico·policy·6 min

What Beijing has learned about the U.S. from the Iran war

The US conflict with Iran is revealing American military and strategic vulnerabilities, and China is closely watching. The US has struggled to cut through an Iranian blockade and has expended heavy firepower, while the Trump administration is trying to extricate itself from an unpopular war. Global gas prices have soared, and the Pentagon's strategic documents reveal that warding off Beijing is no longer the top priority. As President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping prepare to meet, the US is caught in an uncertain ceasefire. Frustrated allies are refusing to assist, and the war is driving political trouble for Trump at home. Current and former US defense officials fear that China is heading into the meeting with the upper hand. The US military campaign in Iran has shifted from destroying nuclear programs to a messier conflict focused on controlling the Strait of Hormuz. China's military is studying US operations against Iran to identify vulnerabilities that can be exploited in a conflict with the US. Beijing has been rapidly building up its long-range missile and drone stockpiles and has likely noticed the US struggles to reopen the strait or stop Iranian attacks. The rerouting of ships, air defenses, and troops from the Pacific to the Middle East is a sign that the US arsenal is not unlimited. The Pentagon is still showing strong tactical performance, but without clear policy and strategy, the US is suffering at the operational level of warfare. American defense officials have insisted that the moved assets have not decreased US readiness in the Pacific, but China is likely to use its larger missile stockpile to overwhelm US air defenses. China has its own struggles, including a military purge that has led to the dismissal of over 100 senior military officers, but it has been conducting detailed studies of American troops for decades. China knows how the US projects power, including its dependence on tankers, bases, and air strikes, and is likely watching how fast America burns through its high-end missiles. Every missile used in Iran is a missile that can't be used to deter China in the Indo-Pacific. The US conflict with Iran is providing China with valuable lessons and insights into American military strategy and vulnerabilities, which could be used in a potential conflict between the two nations.